Well, the first four weeks of the new MVD (Most Valuable Danette) year are complete. What better time to predict the outcome of this year's MVD? The polling is quite scientific but you'll have to take my word for it since I cannot reveal my source(s). It IS important to note that even with all of this polling, only one vote counts and that belongs to Dan Patrick himself.
Here is a quick recap of the four weeks as I see it:
Seton -- Has shot out to an early, commanding lead since arriving in 2012 with a vow to improve his "buzz kill" tendencies and has stuck to it this first month. On top of that he rolled out a new segment that is sweeping the country, nay, the world and has recently even garnered a shout out from Patrick "McDreamy" Dempsey. I speak of course of the ironically named "Stat of the Day." Bonus points must be awarded here for the deep-seated jealousy this segment burns into McLovin. And lastly, Seton has gone so far as to get a new tattoo! All of these combined in only four weeks puts the Win probability for PSO'C at 80%. It is still very early but at this point he's the favorite.
Fritzy -- This one pains me a bit since Todd is a sensitive guy. Since winning his second of back-to-back MVD Awards in 2011, Fritzy has been hot and cold this year. First negative, still no Kate Upton in studio. Going on nothing more than a gut feeling, the guest list for Super Bowl Week will give Fritzy a big bump. The second "shortcoming" if you will, is the up and down "Cougar of the Week" selections. Crystal Gayle... next level!! Carla Gugino... well, not next level. Third, would have to be in his usually strong segment "Mock Headlines." Really, the only problem here is that they have been few and far between in 2012. On the plus side, Todd was amazing in getting Ray Rice AND Kyle Williams a mere 36 hours after heartbreaking, season-ending losses for both (and extenuating circumstances for Williams)! Kudos on those awesome gets. These factors combine for a Win probability of 6.9%. Sorry, Todd, it's not quite 69.
Paulie -- This is the trickiest of all. Much of what Paul does is behind the scenes. So every time you think "that was a great show," that's Paul doing his thing. There isn't anything negative to say about his 2012 unless you aren't a fan of snark. On his positive side is the serendipitously created new segment "Quote of the Year." This will be a tough segment to continue regularly as it can't be very easy to control other people's quotes. And unfortunately, the first quote wasn't very good. However, the initiative of beginning a new segment outweighs that fact and still ends up an overall positive for Paulie. The biggest factor in his favor is the segment he created late last year that continues to thrive. In fact, the only problem with "Five Good Seconds" is that it is WAY too short. I believe if Paulie is able to cajole a 20% increase -- to 6 seconds -- he's got a chance of challenging Seton for MVD honors. But as it stands now, PP's Win probability stands at Payton% -- that is 34% for you non-American football fans.
McLovin -- That just leaves Andrew Perlman. At this point it's easy enough to do the math of the other three Win probabilities to figure out McLovin's chances at this early stage. Clearly his most successful contribution to the show is "Against the Grain," which often times is indistinguishable from "The Grain." But bless his jealousy-filled heart, he tries. Speaking of his jealousy, it seems to be at an all-time high because of Seton's unbelievable first month. While always attempting to steal PSOC's thunder, the one thing he has actually stolen is his buzz killedness. Not a good thing when you've already closed the door in the host's face while he was trying to have a conversation with the front row. I put AMP's Win probability at -20.9%. Again, it's early and "Coffee Break with McLovin" is way underrated.
Also receiving consideration: Brooklyn Decker - 0%, Chrissy Tiegen - 0%. As honorary 5th Danettes, neither has appeared in studio yet but at a current 0% Win probability, they both rank ahead of McLovin.
There you have it, MVD Pundit's first update. Remember, it's still very early and much can change!
Just Joe
