Well, the first four weeks of the new MVD (Most Valuable Danette) year are complete. What better time to predict the outcome of this year's MVD? The polling is quite scientific but you'll have to take my word for it since I cannot reveal my source(s). It IS important to note that even with all of this polling, only one vote counts and that belongs to Dan Patrick himself.
Here is a quick recap of the four weeks as I see it:
Seton -- Has shot out to an early, commanding lead since arriving in 2012 with a vow to improve his "buzz kill" tendencies and has stuck to it this first month. On top of that he rolled out a new segment that is sweeping the country, nay, the world and has recently even garnered a shout out from Patrick "McDreamy" Dempsey. I speak of course of the ironically named "Stat of the Day." Bonus points must be awarded here for the deep-seated jealousy this segment burns into McLovin. And lastly, Seton has gone so far as to get a new tattoo! All of these combined in only four weeks puts the Win probability for PSO'C at 80%. It is still very early but at this point he's the favorite.
Fritzy -- This one pains me a bit since Todd is a sensitive guy. Since winning his second of back-to-back MVD Awards in 2011, Fritzy has been hot and cold this year. First negative, still no Kate Upton in studio. Going on nothing more than a gut feeling, the guest list for Super Bowl Week will give Fritzy a big bump. The second "shortcoming" if you will, is the up and down "Cougar of the Week" selections. Crystal Gayle... next level!! Carla Gugino... well, not next level. Third, would have to be in his usually strong segment "Mock Headlines." Really, the only problem here is that they have been few and far between in 2012. On the plus side, Todd was amazing in getting Ray Rice AND Kyle Williams a mere 36 hours after heartbreaking, season-ending losses for both (and extenuating circumstances for Williams)! Kudos on those awesome gets. These factors combine for a Win probability of 6.9%. Sorry, Todd, it's not quite 69.
Paulie -- This is the trickiest of all. Much of what Paul does is behind the scenes. So every time you think "that was a great show," that's Paul doing his thing. There isn't anything negative to say about his 2012 unless you aren't a fan of snark. On his positive side is the serendipitously created new segment "Quote of the Year." This will be a tough segment to continue regularly as it can't be very easy to control other people's quotes. And unfortunately, the first quote wasn't very good. However, the initiative of beginning a new segment outweighs that fact and still ends up an overall positive for Paulie. The biggest factor in his favor is the segment he created late last year that continues to thrive. In fact, the only problem with "Five Good Seconds" is that it is WAY too short. I believe if Paulie is able to cajole a 20% increase -- to 6 seconds -- he's got a chance of challenging Seton for MVD honors. But as it stands now, PP's Win probability stands at Payton% -- that is 34% for you non-American football fans.
McLovin -- That just leaves Andrew Perlman. At this point it's easy enough to do the math of the other three Win probabilities to figure out McLovin's chances at this early stage. Clearly his most successful contribution to the show is "Against the Grain," which often times is indistinguishable from "The Grain." But bless his jealousy-filled heart, he tries. Speaking of his jealousy, it seems to be at an all-time high because of Seton's unbelievable first month. While always attempting to steal PSOC's thunder, the one thing he has actually stolen is his buzz killedness. Not a good thing when you've already closed the door in the host's face while he was trying to have a conversation with the front row. I put AMP's Win probability at -20.9%. Again, it's early and "Coffee Break with McLovin" is way underrated.
Also receiving consideration: Brooklyn Decker - 0%, Chrissy Tiegen - 0%. As honorary 5th Danettes, neither has appeared in studio yet but at a current 0% Win probability, they both rank ahead of McLovin.
There you have it, MVD Pundit's first update. Remember, it's still very early and much can change!
Just Joe
Sunday, January 29, 2012
Saturday, December 31, 2011
Kyle Orton vs. Denver Broncos
Hey, all! Long time no rant! Just a quick question for today.
So I've been hearing all week about how new Kansas City Chiefs QB (former Denver Broncos QB) Kyle Orton can stick it to his old team.
My question: Wasn't he already sticking it to the Broncos when he went 1-4 as their starter? I guess being responsible for 5 losses equates to "sticking it" to a team.
Just Joe
So I've been hearing all week about how new Kansas City Chiefs QB (former Denver Broncos QB) Kyle Orton can stick it to his old team.
My question: Wasn't he already sticking it to the Broncos when he went 1-4 as their starter? I guess being responsible for 5 losses equates to "sticking it" to a team.
Just Joe
Wednesday, November 30, 2011
Florida Gators -- Week #13/Wrapup
It's funny to say after a 21-7 loss to our in-state rival but that was one of the better games Florida played all year with one glaring exception... 4 interceptions!!
Only 4 penalties for 25 yards in the entire game. That's a big improvement over some of the midseason numbers. The defense looked amazing! The "other team" attempted 46 rushes for only 30 yards while passing for only 65 yards. Even though they were held under 100 total yards for the game, those 4 interceptions set up 21 points. The first scoring drive went for 20 yards. The second scoring drive went for 4 yards. The third score was an interception return for touchdown. And there you have it, 24 yards on offense and 21 points.
John Brantley had his worst game of the season, 3 interceptions in just under one half of work. After the second interception I thought we might see Brissett at some point. It turns out after the third interception, Brantley was injured and so Brissett did get snaps. The offensive line didn't open any running lanes and losing 2 linemen to injury during the game didn't help.
Florida's only score also came after a turnover, the only one the Gators were able to force. After middle linebacker Michael Taylor forced a fumble, the offense took over at the opponent's 21 yard line. First down saw a 15 yard pass interference penalty moved the ball to the 6 yard line where the Gators completed a 6 yard pass for a touchdown.
So all of the scoring for the day came after turnovers and the longest drive for points was 21 yards. Definitely a day dominated by the defenses. The difference was the turnovers. Bottom line: their defense outscored our defense.
I didn't hear it mentioned very often throughout the season but Florida was playing with only 72 players on scholarship, with a few of those being walk ons that earned scholarships this year. For those who don't know, 85 is the maximum allowed as well as the standard that most teams keep. With only 72 scholarship players, depth was an issue all year long. The team was also a young team with only 17 seniors and 17 juniors on scholarship. This needs to be a huge recruiting class with enough talent to push the current young guys who are starting. Whether or not the growing pains of the season will lead to lessons learned and more cohesive play won't be known until next year. I'm hopeful that this season is akin to 2007 when the Gators were coming off of a championship season with a very, very young team that was pushed around at times. After the growing pains of 2007, 2008 was a championship season and 2009 was nearly so. The bowl game will be interesting. There isn't a 6-6 team out there that Florida should not shut down defensively. On offense I'd like to see Brissett start the game so they can get a jumpstart on next season. That would be a slight to Brantley in his senior season however so maybe the freshman can play the second half.
Well, that was Florida football for 2011. I suspect Muschamp & Co. will need to win at least 8 games to keep the fans hopeful that this is moving in the right direction next year. I don't believe next year's schedules are finalized with the 2 new SEC members, Missouri and Texas A&M joining the conference. I suppose the good news is that Alabama should definitely be off of the schedule next year.
Just Joe
Only 4 penalties for 25 yards in the entire game. That's a big improvement over some of the midseason numbers. The defense looked amazing! The "other team" attempted 46 rushes for only 30 yards while passing for only 65 yards. Even though they were held under 100 total yards for the game, those 4 interceptions set up 21 points. The first scoring drive went for 20 yards. The second scoring drive went for 4 yards. The third score was an interception return for touchdown. And there you have it, 24 yards on offense and 21 points.
John Brantley had his worst game of the season, 3 interceptions in just under one half of work. After the second interception I thought we might see Brissett at some point. It turns out after the third interception, Brantley was injured and so Brissett did get snaps. The offensive line didn't open any running lanes and losing 2 linemen to injury during the game didn't help.
Florida's only score also came after a turnover, the only one the Gators were able to force. After middle linebacker Michael Taylor forced a fumble, the offense took over at the opponent's 21 yard line. First down saw a 15 yard pass interference penalty moved the ball to the 6 yard line where the Gators completed a 6 yard pass for a touchdown.
So all of the scoring for the day came after turnovers and the longest drive for points was 21 yards. Definitely a day dominated by the defenses. The difference was the turnovers. Bottom line: their defense outscored our defense.
I didn't hear it mentioned very often throughout the season but Florida was playing with only 72 players on scholarship, with a few of those being walk ons that earned scholarships this year. For those who don't know, 85 is the maximum allowed as well as the standard that most teams keep. With only 72 scholarship players, depth was an issue all year long. The team was also a young team with only 17 seniors and 17 juniors on scholarship. This needs to be a huge recruiting class with enough talent to push the current young guys who are starting. Whether or not the growing pains of the season will lead to lessons learned and more cohesive play won't be known until next year. I'm hopeful that this season is akin to 2007 when the Gators were coming off of a championship season with a very, very young team that was pushed around at times. After the growing pains of 2007, 2008 was a championship season and 2009 was nearly so. The bowl game will be interesting. There isn't a 6-6 team out there that Florida should not shut down defensively. On offense I'd like to see Brissett start the game so they can get a jumpstart on next season. That would be a slight to Brantley in his senior season however so maybe the freshman can play the second half.
Well, that was Florida football for 2011. I suspect Muschamp & Co. will need to win at least 8 games to keep the fans hopeful that this is moving in the right direction next year. I don't believe next year's schedules are finalized with the 2 new SEC members, Missouri and Texas A&M joining the conference. I suppose the good news is that Alabama should definitely be off of the schedule next year.
Just Joe
Saturday, November 26, 2011
Worst Liar Ever
So Urban Meyer continues to deny that there is any agreement for him to coach Ohio State. Pretty interesting considering there are reports of the exact length and amount of the contract. Then I turn on the Michigan/Ohio State football game this afternoon and there's his broadcast team calling the game... without him. It turns out he asked to be taken off of his regular ESPN duties this weekend. Really, Urban? Did you just need a weekend off to spend with your family? If you're trying to give the illusion of having respect for the rivalry game, why not just have respect for the rivalry game and not talk contract until after the game?
Does anyone else think it would be interesting if Ohio State loses this game to finish 6-6 and the Florida Gators lose tonight to finish 6-6 AND those two teams met in a bowl game?
Just Joe
Does anyone else think it would be interesting if Ohio State loses this game to finish 6-6 and the Florida Gators lose tonight to finish 6-6 AND those two teams met in a bowl game?
Just Joe
Thursday, November 24, 2011
Florida Gators -- Week #12
I've always wondered what would happen if a far superior football team took the field against a random, far inferior football team without any preparation. Would the strategies and cohesiveness of the inferior team be able to overcome the superior skill level of the other team? Well, my question was answered in the first quarter of Florida's 54-32 win against FCS Furman.
Furman came out running the option with 2 receivers in the slot, which according to Coach Muschamp, they hadn't run a single play of the entire season. So there were the mighty Gators running around like chickens with their heads cut off. I would figure that in an auction game that they've never seen before, plenty of assignments on the outside would be missed but I wouldn't expect to see the middle of the defensive line look like Swiss cheese. The Paladins confounded the Gators and jumped out to a 15-0 lead. For the record, 2 of those points came on a bad snap for safety. Then after Florida seemed to settle in offensively to cut the lead to 15-7, Furman answered with their longest drive yet, 5 plays for 72 yards and a touchdown to regain a 15 point lead at the end of the first quarter.
The second-quarter looked a lot more like people were expecting. Of the 4 Furman drives in the quarter, 3 of them were 3-and-outs. The three Gators touchdown drives: 7 plays, 65 yards; 1 play, 80 yards; and 2 plays, 34 yards. Mix in a missed field goal attempt and a failed 2 point conversion and the gators led 27-22 at the half.
Third-quarter was a 10-10 stalemate. Both teams started out with field goal drives and then traded 3 punts. Then on a drive's first play, Brantley hit Andre Debose for a 64 yard touchdown. It was Brantley and Debose who had hooked up on the 80 yarder earlier. Not to be outdone, on Furman's first play on the next drive, a 77 yard run right through the defensive line. It was disappointing to see no defender be able to catch the Furman running back in time. It was also disappointing that the Gators were unable to pull away from this feisty team. End of the third, 37-32.
In the fourth quarter, the defense finally flexed some muscle. After an early field goal, the Gators scored on 2 "pick sixes." Although the second didn't come until only a few minutes were left, it came during a drive in which the lead could have been cut to one score.
Overall I give A LOT of credit to Furman. Having said that, it did seem as though Florida came out with little energy, perhaps looking forward to this week's showdown with FSU. In the first and third quarters it seemed as though the Gators were really trying to establish a running game. The offensive line was dominated in the run game as Florida managed just 124 yards the entire game. Take out Chris Rainey's 37 yard scamper and you're looking at under 90 yards! Take out the two interceptions for touchdowns and you're looking at a much closer game. Take out the explosive and somewhat flukish 80 yard and 64 yard touchdown passes and who knows what kind of game you have. (I consider those plays flukish because even though Florida has hit a few of them this year, you cannot count on making those plays every game.)
So a disappointing win if there is such a thing. They'll clearly have to play MUCH better to have any shot against FSU in the Swamp. If the Gators can get decent field position I would expect to see a vast array of trick plays as Charlie Weis empties out the playbook. 7-5 would look a heck of a lot better than 6-6. Go Gators!
Just Joe
Furman came out running the option with 2 receivers in the slot, which according to Coach Muschamp, they hadn't run a single play of the entire season. So there were the mighty Gators running around like chickens with their heads cut off. I would figure that in an auction game that they've never seen before, plenty of assignments on the outside would be missed but I wouldn't expect to see the middle of the defensive line look like Swiss cheese. The Paladins confounded the Gators and jumped out to a 15-0 lead. For the record, 2 of those points came on a bad snap for safety. Then after Florida seemed to settle in offensively to cut the lead to 15-7, Furman answered with their longest drive yet, 5 plays for 72 yards and a touchdown to regain a 15 point lead at the end of the first quarter.
The second-quarter looked a lot more like people were expecting. Of the 4 Furman drives in the quarter, 3 of them were 3-and-outs. The three Gators touchdown drives: 7 plays, 65 yards; 1 play, 80 yards; and 2 plays, 34 yards. Mix in a missed field goal attempt and a failed 2 point conversion and the gators led 27-22 at the half.
Third-quarter was a 10-10 stalemate. Both teams started out with field goal drives and then traded 3 punts. Then on a drive's first play, Brantley hit Andre Debose for a 64 yard touchdown. It was Brantley and Debose who had hooked up on the 80 yarder earlier. Not to be outdone, on Furman's first play on the next drive, a 77 yard run right through the defensive line. It was disappointing to see no defender be able to catch the Furman running back in time. It was also disappointing that the Gators were unable to pull away from this feisty team. End of the third, 37-32.
In the fourth quarter, the defense finally flexed some muscle. After an early field goal, the Gators scored on 2 "pick sixes." Although the second didn't come until only a few minutes were left, it came during a drive in which the lead could have been cut to one score.
Overall I give A LOT of credit to Furman. Having said that, it did seem as though Florida came out with little energy, perhaps looking forward to this week's showdown with FSU. In the first and third quarters it seemed as though the Gators were really trying to establish a running game. The offensive line was dominated in the run game as Florida managed just 124 yards the entire game. Take out Chris Rainey's 37 yard scamper and you're looking at under 90 yards! Take out the two interceptions for touchdowns and you're looking at a much closer game. Take out the explosive and somewhat flukish 80 yard and 64 yard touchdown passes and who knows what kind of game you have. (I consider those plays flukish because even though Florida has hit a few of them this year, you cannot count on making those plays every game.)
So a disappointing win if there is such a thing. They'll clearly have to play MUCH better to have any shot against FSU in the Swamp. If the Gators can get decent field position I would expect to see a vast array of trick plays as Charlie Weis empties out the playbook. 7-5 would look a heck of a lot better than 6-6. Go Gators!
Just Joe
Sunday, November 13, 2011
Florida Gators -- Week #11
*Heavy Sigh*
Defense played inconsistently well in allowing just 17 points.
As for the rest... see Week 1 thrue Week 10 wrapups; poor red zone offense, turnovers, fewer penalties but still at crucial times, etc.
*Heavy sigh*
Just Joe
Defense played inconsistently well in allowing just 17 points.
As for the rest... see Week 1 thrue Week 10 wrapups; poor red zone offense, turnovers, fewer penalties but still at crucial times, etc.
*Heavy sigh*
Just Joe
Friday, November 11, 2011
Florida Gators -- Week #10
So this will be a quick one to catch me up before tomorrow's game against South Carolina.
The first half against Vanderbilt really looked great. Offensively, defensively, nothing really seemed to be lacking. That probably explains the 17-0 halftime score. The worrisome part is the 26-21 final score.
In the Alabama game, the Gators had early leads of 7-0 and 10-7. Against Georgia, the Gators led at the half 17-10. Both of those games ended up as losses. I don't have the patience to go back and look at the diminished leads that occurred in victories but there is a definite trend I've noticed. The Gators start out strong and look well prepared. But as the games go on, opponents make adjustments that slow the Gators down offensively and and put them on their heels defensively. Unfortunately, the turnaround doesn't simply last a series or two. It seems the coaches do not make the necessary adjustments on the fly. It's quite disturbing and once again quite surprising coming from a staff with so much NFL experience.
Since South Carolina's future NFL running back is out this week, I'll give the Gators a slight chance, especially if they can jump out to an early lead and force the Gamecocks to have to throw often. If South Carolina did have Marcus Lattimore available, we would see a repeat of the Alabama and LSU games... the defensive line being pushed around with no one being able to tackle the big fast guy with the ball. I still expect to see that at times tomorrow, but as always, I'm hopeful.
Just Joe
The first half against Vanderbilt really looked great. Offensively, defensively, nothing really seemed to be lacking. That probably explains the 17-0 halftime score. The worrisome part is the 26-21 final score.
In the Alabama game, the Gators had early leads of 7-0 and 10-7. Against Georgia, the Gators led at the half 17-10. Both of those games ended up as losses. I don't have the patience to go back and look at the diminished leads that occurred in victories but there is a definite trend I've noticed. The Gators start out strong and look well prepared. But as the games go on, opponents make adjustments that slow the Gators down offensively and and put them on their heels defensively. Unfortunately, the turnaround doesn't simply last a series or two. It seems the coaches do not make the necessary adjustments on the fly. It's quite disturbing and once again quite surprising coming from a staff with so much NFL experience.
Since South Carolina's future NFL running back is out this week, I'll give the Gators a slight chance, especially if they can jump out to an early lead and force the Gamecocks to have to throw often. If South Carolina did have Marcus Lattimore available, we would see a repeat of the Alabama and LSU games... the defensive line being pushed around with no one being able to tackle the big fast guy with the ball. I still expect to see that at times tomorrow, but as always, I'm hopeful.
Just Joe
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