Thursday, October 18, 2012

Florida Gators 2012 -- Week # 7

Although the final score, 31-17, was close to my prediction, 31-13, the game at Vandy went nothing like I had hoped.  I had envisioned a dominating offensive line running the ball often with some effective play action passing leading to a few 10-15 play drives culminating in 2-3 Mike Gillislee rushing TDs. Of course, I hadn't predicted the injuries that were to plague the Gators including playing the game without 3 O-line starters and 2 front 7 starters on the defensive side.

Offense: In the first half, the Gators did manage two long scoring drives (11 plays, 91 yards, TD and 12 plays, 82 yards, FG) but their other four drives in the half went 4 plays, 3 plays, 5 plays and 3 plays with 0 points. The second half offense transformed into a big play style with a 54-yard Solomon Patton run on a fake punt leading to a TD and a 1 play drive that was a 70-yard QB keeper for a TD. (I did not agree with the Fake call but Coach Muschamp has more testicular fortitude than I!) The Gators also settled for two FGs after starting at the Vandy 14 after a fumble recovery and the Vandy 37 after a 62-yard KO return by Andre Debose. Given the injuries and conservative play calling in the 4th quarter, 31 points was... ok.

Defense: In the first half, aside from a second drive TD that was keyed by a flukish looking 37-yard pass (Vandy QB Jordan Rodgers was hit as he threw up a duck that was hauled in), the Gators' defense was getting off the field very well, as evidenced by Vandy's mere 12:31 of possession. Come the second half, Vanderbilt discovered their running game, mixed in some well timed passes and pushed the Gators around for TWO 15 play drives and an 11 play drive. The first 15 play drive ended in a blocked FG. The second ended on downs with over a minute left in the game. And the 11 play drive ended in Vandy's second half touchdown. The Commodores' ended up commanding the ball for a whopping 20:32 in the half!

Special Teams: These guys really shined and may have been the difference in the game! I already mentioned Debose's KO return and the blocked field goal attempt. On top of that, the kicking team converted all attempts; 3 field goals, 1 PAT and even ran a successful PAT play that turned 1 point into 2.

Looking Ahead: #7 South Carolina (and the Ol' Ball Coach) will be coming to town as the teams will be playing what could be the SEC East decider (3:30 PM, CBS). Their star RB, Marcus Lattimore, is gimpy with an injured hip and may not play. On the Florida side, all 5 of the starters who missed the last game will suit up and likely start.

Last year's game against USC was a line of scrimmage battle that USC won, 17-12. USC ran the ball 52 times! That will need to be held in check as LSU was 2 games ago. To complicate matters, the Gamecocks' QB is every bit as mobile as Jeff Driskel. A containment type pass rush and playing disciplined gap control will be essential. If the UF defense can duplicate it's LSU effort, look for a 17-16 victory.

Looking WAY Ahead: Florida's 6th victory matched last year's regular season win total and made them bowl eligible. A win this week will go a very long way in determining what kind of bowl game the Gators will earn.

GO GATORS!


Just Joe

Thursday, October 11, 2012

Florida Gators 2012 -- Week #6

I am astounded at the leap forward the Gators took after the bye week in beating LSU 14-6 in The Swamp. The score may not sound very impressive but after allowing a long opening drive that yielded a field goal, the Gators defense was smothering. The offense struggled early but managed enough points to get the win.

In the first half, QB Jeff Driskel seemed to regress by taking sack after sack even when having plenty of time to, as my cousin texted me, "THROW THE BALL AWAY!!!!!" The Gators did well in possessing the ball in the first half (17:05 to 12:55) but had no points to show for it. LSU's second scoring chance came at the end of the half after Driskel had another chance to throw a ball away but after escaping the pocket, fumbled the ball over to the Tigers at the FL 7 yard line. The Gators defense stood tall and made a huge stop, holding LSU to just 3 points. A TD there would have been a blow to morale; big difference being a TD away from the lead and being 2 scores from a tie. By the way, I think it says alot about how LSU felt about UF's run defense that LSU attempted 2 passes in that series. 4 three-and outs can have that effect. In the past, 2 runs get them in the end zone.

In the second half, the story was the offensive line, RB Mike Gillislee's tough running and... DEFENSE! Let's start with the offense. The Gators attempted only 4 passes in the entire 2nd half. The final attempt came in the second series and set up a 12-yard TD run for Gillislee with over 5 minutes remaing in the 3rd quarter. With a 7-6 lead, Florida ran the ball on the next 25 plays... consecutively... in a row... back-to-back!!! With those 25 rushes spread over three series, it's amazing that LSU had the ball for even 9:50. Early in the 4th Gillislee ended all scoring when he ran for another 12-yard TD to put the Gators up by 8.

Second half defense allowed very short drives that ended in punts except for what was indubitably the play of the game. LSU was trying to answer UF's first score when they completed a beautiful pass play to Odell Beckham good for 56 yards. Enter Gators safety Matt Elam who chased down Beckham and stripped the ball from the receiver as he was making the tackle! The Gators took over inside their own 20 but LSU's last, credible gasp was thwarted. (See the play here, at 1:34.)

A few quick stats:
Total plays   LSU  50     UF 70!
Run plays     LSU  25     UF 58!!!
3rd downs    LSU 1/13   UF  7/14

No recap would be complete without mentioning the outstanding punting performance put on by Kyle Christy. Particularly in the first half when field position was hard to come by, Christy either flipped field position or pinned the Tigers inside their own 10. I'm sure his game will be overlooked by most, but in a defensive battle, punting can be the difference.

I am also compelled to mention the early, dumb penalties that the Gators still seem prone to. (I know, I know, "...penalties to which the Gators still seem prone.")

After a HUGE win like this, my first thought is "it's awesome to be back in the national spotlight." Who doesn't love having their favorite team discussed by the national "talking heads" of TV and radio? You know, aside from coaches. My second thought is, "Don't listen to the hype. Don't let up." And "don't get cocky." OK, that's 3 thoughts but they are simultaneous. At Vandy this week shouldn't pose many problems but even as fans we shouldn't get caught looking ahead 2 weeks to the showdown with (3) South Carolina. I'd like to see the Gators dominate the line of scrimmage again and this time run some play action. Did you here the commentator call for it during the Gators' run fest on LSU? For the record, I called for it, well, hoped for it BEFORE the game last week. I also mentioned three ways to keep from being ball controlled. The Gators were successful in all three. Week #4 But who's counting?

I'm thinking 31-13 this week.

GO GATORS!


Just Joe

Friday, October 5, 2012

Florida Gators 2012 -- Week #4

Ok, I realize I'm way late on this one but the good news is that means I don't remember any details.

It is VERY difficult to complain about a 38-0 shutout of an SEC East team so I'll only point out that it was another slow start, just 3-0 after the 1st quarter. Recovering from a slow start against better and better teams will be increasingly difficult. I was happy to see Gillislee split time with the other RBs so he could rest his groin injury a bit. I was also glad to see a stout defense against Kentucky's terrible backup QB (3 more INTs). I might have liked to see Brissett a bit more but that's just me.

Tomorrow's game vs. (4)LSU (3:30 pm, CBS) should be a doozy! It's going to come down to the DL and whether or not it can hold up to LSU's rushing attack. In last year's 41-11 drubbing, LSU rushed 49 times and averaged 4.9 yards/rush! LSU will want to run the ball 50 times again but that can't be allowed to happen if the Gators stand a chance. How does one limit an opponent's rushing attempts? The best way is to keep the ball on offense (keeping the opp. offense off the field) and to score 7s instead of 3s (putting the opp. in a defecit where needing points quickly is a must). Another way to limit rushes is simply not allow yardage on those plays. Easy, right? :-) 

So with some luck, the Gators will run the ball enough to make play action effective, then convert every 3rd down chance. Full disclosure, I never pick against the Gators so if they ARE to win, I see a score like, 17-16.


Just Joe

Wednesday, September 19, 2012

Florida Gators 2012 -- Week #3

Once again, a tale of 2 halves ended well for the Gators. Make that "ended very well" for the Gators.

The first half was, again, the worse of the halves. The defense came out committing way too many penalties, allowing way too many yards and probably giving up too many points (although this was a very capable offense they were facing)! On offense, 10 points should have been 14 and the only touchdown came on a short field after an interception.

After getting down 20-13 midway through the third quarter, I feel like Will Muschamp became a little desperate in unnecessarily and unsuccessfully faking a punt. From that point on however, it was great to see big plays return to the offense! The one play, 80 yard drive/run by Burton surprised me. I didn't think Burton had that kind of speed. Then there were two other 3 play drives that led to touchdowns in the second half. One was concluded by a 75 yard catch and run by Frankie Hammond Jr. and the other by a perfectly placed, 23 yard pass to Jordan Reed. The impressive part of the latter play was the throw by Jeff Driskel which was released very early due to heavy pressure... and a crunching hit.

Jeff Driskel showed amazing improvement during this game. I think he may have grown up before our very eyes; anticipating throws, staying in the pocket as long as possible and taking off when needed can all fall under the category of much improved decision-making. Factor in that this was the second of back-to-back road starts in the SEC, at the third largest stadium in the country (102,000+) and it's hard not to be thoroughly impressed with the quarterback's performance.

The Gators held the ball six minutes longer than the Volunteers which is quite impressive when considering those lightning quick scoring drives. Of course, I shudder to think how the game might have ended without those same quick scoring drives.

Did I mention that the defense continued its pattern of essentially shutting down opponents in the second half? Tennessee only mustered 6 points (missed PAT) which came on the first drive. I can't help but wonder why the defense doesn't come out playing so dominantly? It's probably one or more of 3 things: 1. Quality depth allows coaches to rotate players throughout the first half, keeping star players fresh for later on, 2. Strength and conditioning which is another route to having energy filled players in the second half and 3. Coaching adjustments during halftime. Number one is easy to see during the game. Number three can be seen if you're football IQ is way higher than mine. Number two might be wishful thinking but it does make me wonder.

Next week should be interesting. Hosting the 1-2 Kentucky Wildcats (SECNetwork, 12:00 PM) doesn't seem to be a threatening game, especially considering that 25 game win streak Florida currently holds over Kentucky. I do have a feeling that if Florida can get out to an early lead while the defense holds Kentucky down that the coaches may work on a few things to get ready for the next game which is against #2 LSU. For that reason I don't see the score getting out of hand. Maybe something like 30-10. Let's just hope the coaches and players aren't looking past Kentucky the way I am!


Just Joe

Wednesday, September 12, 2012

Florida Gators 2012 -- Week #2

 This will be relatively short since it is Wednesday and my memory can barely be relied on as I'm already looking forward to the next road test @Tennessee (6:00 PM ESPN).

I feel that the offense actually looked a little better in scoring fewer points this week. The offensive line was a little more consistent on run plays which allowed for a few dominating, time-consuming drives. Initially Texas A&M came out on fire, ready to prove they belong in the SEC. The Aggies' first drive (which would have been a 3-and-out but for a personal foul penalty) went 14 plays over 4:26 and 66 yards for a field goal. The Gators, led by the offensive line, answered with a 13 play, 6:43 drive that covered 75 yards and led to a touchdown! Nine of those plays were rushes. I believe that is the kind of powerful football Coach Muschamp is looking for on offense.

The problem then became the defense. Texas A&M's answer to the Gators answer was a 13 play, 5:12 drive that went 81 yards for a touchdown! The defense was simply picked apart by a very athletic redshirt freshman quarterback, Johnny Manziel. That guy is going to cause some serious problems for some teams. Especially ones who are too aggressive in their pass rush (see First Half versus the Gators). After a quick 5 play drive for the Gators, which saw 3 sacks, they punted back to Texas A&M who, in turn, shredded the defense for 10 plays in just 3:31 for 79 yards and another touchdown. 17-7 and not looking very good.

At this point, points of some kind were essential for the Gators. The team did respond with a 9 play drive for just over five minutes, 37 yards and a field goal. After three drives for each team, the score was 17-10, Texas A&M, I with just 1:49 left in the half. Again, the freshman quarterback was impressive with a 9 play drive that luckily ended with time expiring for the half. There was a key sack in the series by backup linebacker Michael Taylor that pushed Texas A&M back to the Gators' 41 yard line.

Halftime was essential for making defensive adjustments to contain Johnny Manziel. It also felt essential that Florida put some points on the board with their first drive since it felt like a shoot out was coming and they were lucky to be down only one score.

Florida came out and did get 3 points after yet another 10 play drive. After that, the story really became the defense. Texas A&M had 6 drives in the second half. 4 of the first 5 were 3 plays and out for a grand total of 21 yards. The other drive went 4 plays for 6 yards. A&M's final drive went 7 plays but only 22 yards. That's right, 49 yards of second-half offense! Florida's offense wasn't much better after that opening drive field goal, but they were able to put together a quick 4 play drive that took 1:14 and covered 62 yards for a touchdown. That drive was highlighted by a 39 yard pass to Omarius Hines that took the ball from the Gators own 43 yard line deep into Aggies' territory at the 18. That touchdown put the Gators on top, 20-17, with 14:19 left in the game and as I mentioned, the defense made that lead stick.

This was definitely a battle worthy of a conference matchup. Texas A&M took their best shot in the first half which, in some years past might have broken a Gators team. But I do believe some of the toughness that the head coach is trying to instill is actually sticking.

This week might be an even tougher matchup on the road against a would-be rival (if Tennessee had won more games in the past two decades or so), Tennessee. They're young quarterback, Tyler Bray, is the real deal. The defense will have to be both, strong against the run and strong -- possibly stronger -- against the pass. I think Tennessee will score into the 20s which means I'd like to see the Gators get into the 30s. Something like 31-23 ought to suffice. I know, I know... "what makes you think the Gators can score 31 points?" I feel like the coaching staff will expect to NEED more points this week so they may open up a little more aggressively on offense with some play action passing. Fingers crossed!


Just Joe

Sunday, September 2, 2012

Florida Gators 2012 -- Week #1

So obviously I was trying to be optimistic when I predicted 9 wins. But it was ugly yesterday. Had Bowling Green not flat out missed 2 short field goals, you're looking at a seven-point game. The hardest part to determine is how much of this was Muschamp trying to keep schemes up his sleeve and how much of this was total crap.

Other than the second offensive series which went 13 plays (11 of which were running plays) and covered 85 yards in over six minutes, the offensive line run blocked inconsistently. To be a little fair, they saw plenty of 8 and even 9 guys in the box playing run defense. Which begs the question, where were the play action passes? Were the Gators holding that back to spring on Texas A&M next week? Were the Gators running the ball against nine guys to instill toughness? Or was it simple bone headedness? I'd like to think they were holding back but in a game that close nothing can be held back.

27 points isn't much against an overmatched Bowling Green State University but it did fall into the 24-27 point range I said the Gators would need to average throughout the year to pile up wins. Will that same offense be able to put up those points against conference teams? Not if they play the same way. Aside from extra pre-snap motion, the play calling seemed identical to last year; plenty of running plays and passes to the outside of 5 yards or less. Are you telling me that with 9 guys playing up that Jordan Reed couldn't get open deep over the middle? Sheesh. And where was Trey Burton? Mr. Do Everything who has played quarterback, running back, tight end, h-back, fullback -- am I missing any? -- had the ball in his hands twice? Sheesh.

The defense I could plainly see was keeping things simple. I didn't notice a single crazy blitz or coverage. There were about 4 drives during the game when they were picked apart. The most concerning part to me were the times that the defense was gashed in the running game. It can happen from time to time in a game, but it was a little too common during those drives. On the bright side, the defense had several 3 and outs (or is it 3s and out?). There was a stretch in the second quarter where the cornerbacks really tightened up coverage and broke up several passes. They were also exposed at times on slant passes so I would expect to see plenty of those run against the Gators this year.

2 play calls in particular that bugged me. The pooch punt by Driskel was unnecessary and turned out to be terribly executed and on the last drive, 1st & 10, naked bootleg by Driskel. That bootleg could have been used at any other time in the game and it would've been a great call. But after simply pounding the rock all game, why show the bootleg when the game is over? I'd rather have used it when the game was in doubt or not at all. Probably nitpicking but that's what people who have never played usually do.

Here's to hoping that next week is much improved! It'll be the Gators first taste of College Station. What's worse is that Texas A&M's first game was postponed so there isn't any film to watch. Not a huge deal except their new offensive coordinator is in his first year coming over from the prolific Houston passing offense. It would be nice to see a few of their reps. Of course, the flip side is that they haven't run any game reps and may not be sharp. Welcoming the Aggies to the SEC by winning 27-14 will look much more impressive and probably leave Gator Nation a little more comfortable.


Just Joe

*********************EDIT*****************************

I should have mentioned that even with the offensive line's struggles, Mike Gillislee was outstanding, carrying the ball a career-high 24 times for a career-high 148 yards and 2 touchdowns!

I also should have mentioned the poor tackling on defense. In fact cornerback Loucheiz Purifoy's best tackle was on punt returner Andre Debose... that is Gators punt returner, Andre Debose!

Friday, August 31, 2012

2012 Florida Gators Outlook

 Okay, here is the speedy version...

OFFENSE

Quarterbacks -- 2 sophomores with starts last year are battling it out to start this year. One is said to be a slightly better passer and the other is more athletic. The battle still isn't settled and both guys will see meaningful snaps in the opener. I think the saying goes "if you have two quarterbacks, you don't have one." If either guy can give a consistently average performance, that should be good enough to win some games. See DEFENSE.

Running Backs -- For the first time in four years, the Gators will not have someone named Demps or Rainey at running back. Mike Gillislee is the starter and should be solid. He has shown some big play ability although it was mostly in mop up duty. If he quits putting the ball on the ground, the Gators should be okay here. Depth may be an issue.

Wide Receivers -- Yikes! Normally a kid coming in as an early entry in January and winning a starting spot by the end of spring practice says a lot about that incoming freshmen. Unfortunately it also says a lot about the rest of the receiving corps. Just yikes!

Offensive Line -- If you're going to have a strength on offense, it might as well be the offensive line. A good offense of line will make all of the other positions look better on offense. There have been a lot of injuries on the line but there is good depth and a lot of experience so here's hoping.

DEFENSE

Secondary -- Very deep with young talent. I think you'll see quite a few more plays made this year after having a full year in Muschamp's scheme.

Linebackers -- Have some injuries here. But with some experienced guys holding down positions, they should look pretty good.  I think you will see them be more aggressive and instinctual and less calculated and thoughtful... which is a good thing. Hopefully the aggression will lead to more turnovers, especially if Jenkins can hold on to a few more of those 6 interceptions he dropped last year.

Defensive Line -- This is where our boys need to play like men. 3-4 defenses are predicated on having beasts in the front to keep offensive linemen off of the linebackers on running plays while getting pressure on the quarterback on passing plays (which aids the secondary greatly). Similar to offense, if you're going to have a strength on defense, it might as well be along the line.

Overall -- The defense was nearly great last year. With this being the head coach's specialty, and having a full year under the belt, I expect the defense to be outstanding! They should keep the Gators in every game. That's why I think an average offense, just scoring 24-27 points per game, could lead to 9+ wins. The points would have to be scored at the right time in the right games, but I think 9 wins is realistic. Unfortunately, with a new offensive coordinator bringing in a lot of new shifts and motion to the offense, I expect some inconsistency.


Just Joe